Unless something moves in the next six months, the next election may render the UK ungovernable

The past few months in British politics have been volatile. UKIP's rise has gone unabated, with the party wounding both the Tories in Clacton and Labour in Heywood & Middleton last month. This week, it seems likely they will defeat the Tories in a second by-election in Rochester and Strood, nominally less friendly ground than Clacton was, and possibly do so by more than 10 points. Labour's post-conference gloom continued, especially given the collapse of the party in Scotland amid an SNP surge. The frustration culminated in last weekend's feverish leadership speculation, though the inability of the plotters to find an alternative and the #webackEd fightback from the party (and from Miliband himself in a strong speech this week) seems to have settled that now. The Lib Dems are showing relatively little sign of recovery in the polls, and even if they climb into the low double-digits closer to May, they will still lose around two-thirds of their seats. And the Greens appear to be a growing force, able to take votes - even if not seats - from Labour and the Lib Dems.

This all raises the specter of a severely hung parliament in May 2015, even if we assume the Lib Dems rally slightly and the Green vote falls back. electionforecast.co.uk's prediction today is telling:

2015 Election Prediction on November 16th 2014 from the website electionforecast.co.uk

Noticeable is that with both Labour and the Conservatives mired in the low-thirties, neither is close to 300 seats, let alone a bare-minimum majority of 326. What's worse, the combination of minor parties they have available to partner with are likely to be less helpful than the May 2010 hung parliament arithmetic was. Let's look at the various options.

Possible coalitions (326* needed for a 1-seat majority):

*technically, a working majority would actually be 323 once we account for Sinn Fein's 5 or so abstentionist MPs, but 326 is the official/obvious marker. In any case, few of the following scenarios even clear 323, as we will see. As an aside, the only recent Northern Ireland-only poll in September 2014 found the DUP on 26% (+1 compared to 2010), Sinn Fein on 24% (-3), SDLP 15% (-1), UUP 12% (-3) and Alliance (6%) and others (TUV, UKIP, NI Greens, NI21) on a combined 17% (+4). For now, it's best to assume the 18 NI seats stay in roughly the same hands as before; DUP 8, Sinn Fein 5, SDLP 3 and Alliance 1, plus Sylvia Hermon (Independent). Numbers below for the rest of the UK are based on the electionforecast numbers above

Traffic Light:

Labour (283) + Lib Dem (21) with support from Greens (1), Plaid (2), SDLP (3), Alliance (1), Respect (1), Hermon (1) = 313, 13 short of a majority

This would be the anti-Tory "traffic light" (red-yellow-green) or "rainbow" coalition deal some on the centre-left dream of, with formal or informal deals with smaller parties beyond the main Lib-Lab cabinet. The existing alliances between Labour-SDLP and Lib Dem-Alliance help here. Labour and Plaid Cymru also governed Wales between 2007-2011, so there's some history of cooperation there. North Down independent MP Sylvia Hermon - formerly UUP - has long voted with Labour and left her former party over their pre-2010 election pact with the Tories. However, under these numbers, one of the main concerns that thwarted this type of deal in May 2010 would be even more apparent. Back then, Labour + Lib Dem was 11 seats short of a majority, and though pacts with the other "left of the Tories" parties would put the rainbow coalition closer to the line in theory, in practice it would have been incredibly ricketty. This time, the shrunken state of the Lib Dems makes it even tougher.

Traffic Light + DUP

Labour (283) + Lib Dem (21) with support from Greens (1), Plaid (2), SDLP (3), Alliance (1), Respect (1), Hermon (1) and deal with the DUP (8)  = 321, 5 short of a majority

Toyed with by Lord Adonis et al in the May 2010 negotiations, in this combination a confidence and supply deal with DUP to secure its 8 votes would be in offing, on top of the other deals with the traffic light partners. However, the DUP would demand concessions for Ulster, would not be a reliable vote on much primary legislation and might not be hostile enough to the Tories this time (last time, they had just fought the election against a UUP-Conservative joint election ticket – this has since ended).

Tartan Traffic Light

Labour (283) + Lib Dem (21) with support from SNP (36) or the centre-left parties = 340+, majority of 15

The numbers and ideological alignments are somewhat logical here. But politically, this is only an option for Ed Miliband if he’s willing to steel his spine and dare the SNP not to back him (since failing to do so would lead to Scots punishing the SNP for letting in the Tories). Granting significant concessions to the SNP in order to buy their support, by contrast, would kill a Miliband government in England at the outset, as well as undercutting what was left of Scottish Labour.

It also occurs to me that an additional hurdle would be that a SNP-heavy Scottish delegation also represents a form of de facto EVEL (English Votes for English Laws) anyway - this is because SNP MPs are already abstentionist on English matters. At current with the SNP having only 5 of 59 MPs, this matters little, but if they represent over half of Scotland's delegation with 36 MPs (or even as many as 52, per Survation yesterday) and are propping up a Miliband government in the UK, they would only be able to do so on confidence votes and UK-wide legislation. For everything else, Prime Minister Miliband would still need some combination of the other "traffic-light" allies, the DUP and probably even some UKIP and Tory ayes/abstentions/absences to pass any legislation on Scottish devolved matters, leaving him "in government, but not in power" in the same way formal EVEL would.

Farage’s Faustian Pact

Labour (283) with support from UKIP (4) = 287, 39 short of a majority

So Farage’s suggestion that he might "do a deal with the devil" and prop up Miliband in exchange for an In/Out referendum is mathematical gibberish, on top of it being mind-boggling ideologically. I suppose it could be mixed with some of the above options, if none of the Lib Dems, Respect, the Nats etc objected to a deal with UKIP, but that's rather a big "if".

Continuity Coalition

Conservative (284) + Lib Dem (21) = 205, 21 short of a majority

If the Tories and Lib Dems tried to keep the current government going (which there may be little appetite for in the Lib Dems, or the Tories), numbers might well thwart them.

Continuity Coalition + DUP

Conservative (284) + Lib Dem (21) with support from DUP (8) = 213, 13 short of a majority

Even with a confidence and supply deal with the DUP, a Lib-Con deal would still be tough

Right-Wing Alliance:

Conservative (284) with support from UKIP (4) + DUP (8) = 296, 30 seats short

The only three clearly right-of-centre parties in British politics are under 300 when put together, so no government there.

Grand Coalition
Conservative (284) + Labour (283) = 567

This is relatively common in Europe, but it can still be controversial there and would be even more fraught with problems in UK context. We lack the tradition of consensus politics and are barely used to coalition, even when it's the centrist Lib Dems and one of the other two. It would feed the idea that there's "no difference" between the Labour and Conservative elites, further damaging our politics and feeding apathy (though the lack of basic truth in that sentiment goes a long way to explaining why this option is so implausible to begin with). And the lack of proportionality in our voting system would mean that although a Lab-Con coalition might only be holding around 60% of the popular vote, the 567 figure above would nevertheless equate to 87% of all seats in parliament, a death knell for democratic accountability. Never going to happen - luckily.

Conclusions

So the writing on the wall is clear. Unless something changes big time - hopefully a Labour renaissance in Scotland, for a start - Britain could be almost ungovernable in six months' time. It also demonstrates the false allure of the minor parties, as their rise is ultimately likely to make our system of government even more sclerotic and unaccountable, which will in turn deepen public disaffection with politics. However, this means Labour and the main parties have very little time to lose to regain the public's trust and avert a brewing crisis.