2014 Year in Review Part 1 - At Home

Another 12 months has raced by since I wrote my last year-end review blog, and its been a tumultuous year. We now stand less than five months from the next UK general election and the election remains highly unpredictable, with a close result or a deeply hung parliament very possible, as I wrote recently. We've also seen the breakup of the UK narrowly averted in the Scottish referendum and instability around the world, with Ebola plaguing West Africa and conflict erupting in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, we also saw huge advances, another year of pop culture to reflect on and causes for hope in our world.

Today I'll focus on the year in current affairs in the UK (part 2 tomorrow will be on world events).

EU elections & the continuing rise of UKIP

From my 2013 wrap:

"Whether a strong showing in [the May 2014 Euro elections] will set [UKIP] up to win any Commons seats or in any way significantly influence the course of the 2015 election remains to be seen, but UKIP's will likely remain a major political story"

As I predicted (not exactly boldly, but still), UKIP's influence remained a major theme this year - for the three main parties, 2014 was the year UKIP refused to die. Early in the year, Nick Clegg was soundly defeated by Nigel Farage in two televised debates on the EU Clegg had demanded, a serious tactical error by the Lib Dem leader. On May 22nd, UKIP topped the European election polls, becoming the largest party in Britain's Brussels delegation, and gained 163 new councillors.

UKIP have further shown alarming strength in a string of Westminster by-elections this year, damaging both main parties. In February, a strong effort by Labour fought them off in Wythenshawe & Sale East, 53% to 18%, with the Tories in third. However, in Newark in June, the threat of UKIP forced many centre-left voters to tactically vote Tory for the first time in their lives, relegating Labour to third place, and by September, the northern Labour safe seat of Heywood & Middleton came within 600 votes of falling to UKIP's John Bickley. My local MP Emily Thornberry was forced to resign from Labour's frontbench after posting a Tweet deemed offensive to patriotic working-class voters and Ed Miliband is continuing to stress fairer migration as a key Labour priority, a strong sign of how seriously Labour is taking the threat.

But for the Tories, the threat posed by UKIP was even clearer - they continue to lose comparatively more of their voters to Nigel Farage and following the defections and resignations of right-wing Tories Douglas Carswell (Clacton) and Mark Reckless (Rochester & Strood), UKIP made their long-awaited Commons breakthrough at David Cameron's expense. UKIP continue to poll at 15% or more in many polls, a huge rise from the 3% they managed in May 2010. However, not all is rosy for them. They're likely to lose support as the real Labour v. Tory choice crystallises closer to May 7th, as Clegg did in 2010 (though how much is debatable). The party was hit by yet more controversies over gaffes and offensive remarks by poorly-vetted candidates, ranging from a claim that gay marriage was causing the severe flooding the South West faced in January, to Mike Read's "UKIP Calypso" in October and the resignation of UKIP's South Basildon & East Thurrock candidate Kerry Smith over racist and homophobic remarks at the close of the year. Further, polls in Farage's chosen seat of South Thanet show that he's not currently on course to join Carswell, Reckless and any other UKIP MPs on the Commons benches in May unless he works harder, and his personal negatives have also been lifted by various controversies this year (most recently his defence of Kerry Smith's comments, and subsequent decision to attack a satirical "UKIK" app designed by schoolchildren).

Nevertheless, UKIP's continuing growth shows the need for the political class to reform our democracy, in order to fight off disaffection with politics, as well as addressing pressures such as immigration and the cost of living crisis. Following the farce that followed the appointment of Britain's new EU commissioner in July, I suggested that we put future appointments to a public vote, and after witnessing a string of public scandals that only served to strengthen anti-politics demagogues like Farage, I also came around to the case for recall elections this year. 

The Scottish Referendum & the Union

After an intense campaign that saw unprecedented 85% turnout and included suffrage from 16 year olds, Scots eventually voted down the SNP's dream of independence. However, this happened by a much narrower-than-hoped 55%-45% margin ("45%" has since become a rallying cry for Nats). Following a single YouGov poll a mere two weeks before the vote that warned of a narrow Yes lead, bold promises of more devolution to the Scots and an impassioned plea by Gordon Brown were credited by some for retrieving victory for the Better Together camp. However, it's worth remembering that every other poll showed a No lead of some kind (Survation, where I had the pleasure of working briefly this year as an interviewer, was one of the most accurate).

However, all is not resolved. Concerns about whether Westminster will deliver on devolution and disaffection with Labour north of Hadrian's Wall has seen an SNP surge, despite the party being defeated on its signature issue. The SNP could leap from holding just 6 of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats to more than 40-50 after next May, leaving Nicola Sturgeon's party with the balance of power unless Labour's newly-elected Scottish leader Jim Murphy delivers an effective fightback (Survation's final 2014 poll for the Daily Record suggests this is not happening yet - the SNP held a 48%-24% lead).

Jim Murphy & Kezia Dugdale MSP, Scottish
Labour's new "dream ticket"

Meanwhile, far from securing the union, the referendum has also raised more questions from English nationalists about England's place in the union, including discussions over devolution and controversial proposals for "English Votes for English Laws" (EVEL) in Westminster to address the West Lothian question. EVEL would damage the UK's constitutional foundations if delivered in the form the Conservatives promised this year, which would make coherent government by any party other than them harder. I also think that either EVEL or a single English parliament will be too centralising, failing to deliver the real devolution English people deserve. But the basic principle of tackling the West Lothian issue is nonetheless right. Following Labour's promised constitutional convention, I hope for a more federal system where powers roughly equivalent to those held in Scotland are devolved to city-regions and elected regional assemblies in England (along with further devolution for Wales & Northern Ireland), something I argued for in a comment in the Evening Standard in September. While working as a researcher for the Centre for Cities earlier this year, I helped highlight some of the areas where vastly greater local, not national, control would benefit English residents, including transport. However, to meet the need for a single English voice on policy areas that need to be England-wide (justice, social security, perhaps tax), I also believe elected regional representatives could double as officials of a cumulative English parliament that would meet on select days in Birmingham. Alternatively, as LabourList's Mark Ferguson suggested, English Westminster MPs could double up as members of powerful devolved regional assemblies, in order to prevent the need for the creation of new elected officials. What's clear is that in 2015, Westminster politicians will need to think hard and get the balance right on English devolution.

The year for Labour 

Labour came second in the EU elections, narrowly outpacing the Conservatives, and made 324 gains in the local elections on the same day. In London, victories were particularly clear. In Southwark, my local Labour Party elected more councillors than it had for 30 years and made gains in coalition Justice minister Simon Hughes' Bermondsey and Old Southwark stronghold, taking seats in key wards such as Chaucer. In my newest home seat in Islington, the Lib Dems failed to elect a single councillor. David Cameron's flagship council of Hammersmith & Fulham turned out to be a surprise win for Labour, along with victories in Croydon and Harrow. Beyond the capital, Labour's fortunes were more mixed, with UKIP blunting Labour's ability to benefit from anti-government votes, but the party gained ground in key areas including Cambridge, Basildon, Bradford, Amber Valley and Crawley.

This year, I also had the chance to work for the brilliant Labour Finance & Industry Group as a researcher for eight months, articulating the pro-business case for Labour and publishing articles on Britain's place in the global economy, IPPR's 'Condition of Britain' report on welfare reform and North Sea oil and gas. In September, I attended Labour's 2014 conference in Manchester with LFIG, where two of our main fringe topics - clearer rights for freelancers in the economy and making more progressive use of public procurement - made it into Ed Miliband's speech. We ended the year with a well-attended Christmas dinner event headlined by shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, who spoke movingly and optimistically on how Labour can once again change society for the better.

Me visiting the European Socialists & Democrats (S&D) stall at
conference in September, a stone's throw from the LFIG stand

Conference did not go entirely without a hitch, of course. The close result in Heywood came just weeks after, and Ed Miliband had received criticism for missing critical sections on immigration and the deficit from an at-times flat conference speech, though this is an error he has subsequently put right by making these two issues his first two 2015 pledges. On the heels of this, a leadership wobble caused by backers of Alan Johnson in early November briefly appeared to represent a challenge to Ed's authority, but in response, grassroots Labour activists took to social media to shore up their leader's position with the inspiring #webackEd trend. In August, I myself I wrote a blog outlining the strong policy, political and personal case for Prime Minister Miliband. And as the year closes, Labour is now posting leads of between 3 and 7 points in the polls, showing that neither constant attacks nor George Osborne's recent Autumn Statement giveaways have changed much. The election will be close, and may yet result in a hung parliament, but if any party at all is in a position to win, it is still Labour.

A year in social policy

Pressures on the NHS continue to mount due to the combined effects of restrained spending, rising demands and the chaotic reorganisation. This has prompted debates about how the NHS should be funded, including controversial calls by Lord Warner & the think-tank Reform, backbench Tory MPs and figures within UKIP for fresh NHS charges. I laid out the case against this in a blog I wrote in June and suggested potential alternatives, and was greatly heartened when King's Fund's Barker Commission sided against user charging and laid out a firm roadmap to fully-fund both the NHS and integrated social care in its September report. In October, NHS England's new chief executive Simon Stevens laid out his Five Year Forward Review plan for the NHS, which called for £8bn in new funding, stressed integration and community care and warned against further reorganisations. Leaders of the main parties have already accepted some of these proposals, and more generally seem to be engaging more on the issue of NHS funding, but there remains a reluctance to discuss service changes or spending increases on the scale needed (even Labour has so far only committed an extra £2.5bn). In recent months, the NHS has overtaken immigration as the public's number one issue according to some polls, however, so pressure is mounting on our leaders for greater clarification.

Fiscal pressures are a key factor in other areas of social policy too. In August I started work in an consultancy within the non-profit sector, and one thing that has struck me since joining the sector has been the continual discussion of funding crises. Despite continued shows of creativity and mass public generosity in the form of campaigners like the summer's #IceBucketChallenge, charities have found it somewhat harder to fundraise in an insecure economy, while simultaneously facing public sector contracts and grants being pared back. Public sector contracts are also getting bigger and are often on a delayed Payment by Results (PbR) basis, making it harder for charities and social enterprises to compete with large corporates - a solitary social sector provider is currently competing with G4S and Lockheed-Martin for a £1bn NHS GP support services contract, for example. In August, I blogged about what Labour has pledged to address some of these issues. Further, new restrictions in the Lobbying Act and allegations of "political" campaigning by the sector from Civil Society Ministers Brooks Newmark and Rob Wilson also brought into question the relationship between government funding and the third sector's neutrality, another sensitive issue.

Belfast's Lord mayor and Motor Neurone Disease Association volunteers doing
#IceBucketChallenge, August 2014 (courtesy of Flickr)

The sector itself can respond to funding challenges by accessing social investment and up-scaling its services, so that it will be on a better footing to play a much larger role in service provision, a development that could be very positive for communities and users. But politicians have their part to play in meeting the sector half-way - next year's election represents a further source of instability for the sector, but also an opportunity for productive policy shifts. It will be interesting to see what next year brings - experts have already made some predictions.

WW1 Centenary

British Tommies shortly after capturing a trench (courtesy of the
National Library of Scotland, Flickr)

As the year opened, Boris Johnson and then-Education Secretary Michael Gove came under fire for remarks about how the war should be interpreted and taught, and a wreath-laying ceremony in August was similarly marred by politicisation as well. However, these controversies aside, the anniversary allowed us to reflect on the profound events of 100 years ago. On August 4th many turned our lights off in memory, and a few days later I was fortunate to see the Imperial War Museum Lambeth's exhibitions on the Home Front, the Holocaust and the withdrawal of British forces in Afghanistan (completed in October). I still regret not finding the time to see the Tower of London Remembers display of 888,246 ceramic poppies while it was on display in November, but the images I saw were stunning. Hopefully these events do not end with 2014 - we have three more years of centenaries to reflect on the rest of this episode in history.

The Tower of London Remembers display, "Blood Swept Land
and Seas of Red" (image by Steve Tilbury, Flickr)

Read on tomorrow for a reminder of world events in 2014.