Another 12 months has raced by since I wrote my last year-end review blog,
and its been a tumultuous year. In part 1, I looked at what the last 12 months
had meant for UK politics, with a highly unpredictable general election now
just five months away. Today we look at events in the world, including
conflicts, Ebola, the US and critical elections across the world.
The Middle East
From the early part of the year, ultra-violent Al Qaeda offshoot ISIL
began to gain ground in both Syria and Iraq, becoming the sole authority in an
area the size of Britain containing 8,000,000
residents. This threatened the stability of the Iraqi government, exposed
minorities such as the Yazidis and Kurds to brutal ethnic cleansing and led to
the deaths of Western hostages. As public support shifted toward intervention,
a multi-national coalition was formed to fight ISIL, including both Western and
Arab air forces. Prime Minister David Cameron was able to secure parliamentary
approval for British strikes in Iraq thanks to an existing pretext of British
involvement in the country, a turnaround from his defeat over Syria in 2013, and a tacit
alliance (albeit one of immediate convenience) even began to emerge between
staunch enemies Iran and the United States in support of Iraqi government. But
as the year comes to a close, the fight has not yet been won and civilians
remain at risk – a recent account by a German journalist gave a shocking account of
life under ISIL. Still more international support is needed for the Kurds and
other anti-ISIL forces, including military aid, and more effort needed from the
corrupt Shia-led Baghdad government to bring in the alienated Sunnis who have
provided ISIL’s support base. In Syria, a resolution to the civil war in Syria
that will lead to the establishment of a legitimate, stable government there is
perhaps the only thing that can close the vacuum, but this remains far off as long as
Assad remains in power.
 |
On the other side of the region, similarly little progress was made for
peace. In Palestine, a unity government featuring Hamas was formed, but
US-backed talks with Israel collapsed in April when Israel failed to release
prisoners and Palestine unilaterally sought greater UN recognition, both violating previous pledges. In July, fighting
broke out between Israel and Hamas forces in Gaza, during which over 2,000
Palestinians were killed. This brought mass condemnation of Israel in the UK,
though as I wrote at the time, it is important to consider
military actions in light of the threat faced and remember Hamas complicity in
the deaths of Palestinian civilians. Instead, it is the failure to embrace the
peace process and the insistence on settlement-building that we should
criticise Israel for, both of which the Netanyahu government continued to show
intransigence about this year. In March 2015 fresh elections will be held in
Israel. This could represent the next chance for a shift in thinking in the
region, but polls currently suggest a shift in a
still-more hardline direction, with liberals Yesh Atid losing ground and the
far-right Jewish Home set to gain.
Ukraine
The overthrow of Ukraine's pro-Moscow regime by European-leaning
protesters in February led to unrest and Russian military intervention in the
country, starting with the annexation of Crimea in March. Even by the
standards of Vladimir Putin, this represented aggression on a scale not seen
since his incursion into Georgia in 2008, though Ukraine’s position at the
cross-road between Europe and Russia made this move all the more severe. The
situation then developed into civil war between Russian-backed rebels in the
east and Ukrainian government forces, which has so far killed 3,000 on both
sides. It also caused the likely shooting down of Malaysia Airlines flight 17 in July, a
tragedy that came only months after the baffling disappearance of Malaysia
Airlines flight 37 near Thailand. In May, voters in the regions
still under government control voted overwhelmingly to elect reformist businessman Petro Poroshenko to the Ukrainian
presidency. As the year closed, Poroshenko clarified his intent to seek closer
ties with NATO and the EU, convincing the Ukrainian parliament to drop
the country's official non-aligned status on December 23rd.
Ebola
The Ebola outbreak in West Africa affected Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, with other fatal cases in Nigeria, Senegal, Mali, Spain and the US - it has claimed the lives of nearly 20,000 people since March. Time magazine has named health workers who responded to the crisis as its "person(s) of the year" 2014. In the UK, Band Aid 30 was released in time for Christmas, with amended lyrics intended both to address past criticisms of the song and re-tailor it to the present crisis (though reactions were still mixed). However, despite sterling efforts, experts are warning that the crisis may last another year - there is still more for the world to do.
The US
Two police killings of unarmed black men - Michael Brown of Ferguson, Missouri
and Eric Garner of New York - prompted anger in
the US, especially following the failure of grand juries to indict in either
case, even though the latter was videoed. This essentially comes down to
a legal test in America that gives officers
broad powers to kill provided they can reasonably convince juries they believed
it to be necessary to prevent harm or escape, which is then compounded by the
strong predisposition of American juries to trust the judgement of police
officers (and by the continuing presence of racial bias in the system). In
Britain we are not totally immune to similar incidents - 2014 saw courts uphold
the lawfulness of the 2011 police shooting of Mark Duggan, a case where Duggan's gun was found
over 10 feet away behind a fence and in which the Met initially issued flawed
accounts. We also saw small slides towards more forceful policing in parts of
the UK – Mayor Boris Johnson purchased water-cannon for the Met, despite criticism, and
the Scottish government briefly began to allow routine armament in Scotland. But Brown and
Garner were far from the only such incidents in the US (a 12 year old, Tamir
Rice, was shot dead in Cleveland around the same time), and broadly, watching
the Ferguson riots on the news made me feel fortunate to live in country with
such a strong tradition of policing by consent. We must guard it carefully.
Abroad, President Barack Obama took the overdue step of re-establishing US relations with Cuba
(though he has not yet lifted its embargo, a fact sometimes lost on both sides
of the reaction to his decision), but another old enemy of the US – North Korea
– remained troublesome. As the year closed, Sony pressed ahead with an online
release of controversial Seth Rogen film The
Interview, despite threats and admonitions from Pyongyang and
the (possibly unrelated) risk of further hacking on
the scale Sony suffered in November.
The other major story in the US this year was the heavy defeat of the
Democrats in the November midterm elections, a result reminiscent of Obama's
first round of midterms in 2010. This did not necessarily reflect a failure of
Democratic policies - referendums on the minimum wage and other liberal priorities passed
in several states, the American economy has been growing under
Obama, and his signature Obamacare health reforms have been relatively successful, if not necessarily popular.
But the tendency of core Democratic base groups (young people, minorities,
single women) to only turn out in presidential election years, the longstanding
American habit of voting against the incumbent president's party in
midterms and the efficiency with which state-level Republicans
gerrymandered seat boundaries after 2010 all combined to create an environment
in which Democrats couldn't survive. This doesn't mean the Democrats can't hold
the presidency in 2016 - far from it. Racial and economic demographics continue
to move in the Dems' favour, Hillary would be a strong
candidate and the plausible Republican presidential field is still scattered
and perhaps too right-wing to seize the centre easily. But the past six years
do show that America is becoming extremely hard to govern for the Democrats -
unless they can change the game, they may only ever win presidential mandates,
dooming them to routinely share power with unhinged congressional and state
Republicans who have no interest in making government work at all.
Other Elections
- European parliament: in May, the centre-right EPP bloc lost ground but remained the largest party, allowing it to elect federalist Jean-Claude Juncker commission president under the new Spitzenkandidaten ('top candidate') system this year, despite opposition to Juncker from both David Cameron and Ed Miliband. Parties on the fringes of both the right and left triumphed, with the far-right Front Nationale topping the polls in France and SYRIZA doing so in Greece. Italy's Democratic Party, under its new "Blairite" leader Matteo Renzi, was one of the only social democratic parties to gain substantial ground, making him one to watch
.jpg)
- Sweden: in September, Sweden elected a centre-left
government as had been expected, on the back of disaffection with the
ruling centre-right coalition's public service reforms. But in a
foreshadow of what we in the UK may face next year, they did so without
apparent enthusiasm and this created immediate instability. Stefan
Lofven's Social Democrats got in on a static vote share and were forced to
form a minority government with both the Greens and the ex-communist Left
Party, while the largest gainers in the election were the extreme-right
anti-immigration Sweden Democrats. In December, Lofven
was forced to call a rare snap election for
March 2015 after the Sweden Democrats voted with the right-wing parties to
veto his budget - current polls suggest another lead for
the left bloc, but it remains to be seen if the re-do will be more
decisive (Update, 27/12 - a deal has now been struck to prevent this)
|
- New
Zealand: also in September, Prime Minister John Key's
right-wing National Party government - in power since 2008 - achieved its
third successive election victory, beating New Zealand Labour 47%-25%. Out
of the Anglophone "five eyes" (UK, Canada, US,
Australia, New Zealand), only the US remains under a progressive leader in
Obama
- Brazil:
the world's seventh largest economy re-elected "Iron Lady" Workers' Party
president Dilma Rousseff 52%-48% in a close fight in October
- India:
the world's largest democracy and tenth-biggest economy elected the 16th
Lok Sabha (Assembly of the People) in April-May 2014, and with 815 million
eligible and a highest-ever turnout of 66%, this was largest-ever election in the world. The
result saw Narendra Modi and the right-wing Hindu
Nationalist BJP party seize power after years of rule by Rahul Ghandi's
Indian National Congress party. Modi's election brought with it
controversy, however - when he was Chief Minister of Hindu-majority
Gujarat he failed to protect the state's Muslim minority during severe
rioting in 2002
- Egypt:
after the overthrow of Morsi in 2013 by the Egyptian military, an election
was held in which former defence minister Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was elected with
96% of the vote on a 48% turnout. Morsi's Freedom & Justice Party (a
front for the Muslim Brotherhood) had boycotted the poll, however
- Afghanistan: in the year when British and US forces ended their missions in Afghanistan, presidential elections were similarly mired in controversy over allegations of fraud, but nevertheless resulted in the first peaceful, democratic power transition in the country's history. Hamid Karzai, the country's US-backed ruler since 2001, was term-limited. Ashraf Ghani - a "US-educated anthropologist turned reformist politician" - was elected in his place, while agreeing to share power with election opponent Abdullah Abdullah.
Elections to watch in 2015:
- Israel
(March): possible gains by the far-right Jewish Home
Sweden (March): hopeful centre-left victory- Canada
(October): probable victory for Justin Tradeau's Liberals after eight
years of Conservative rule - Tradeau gained international attention this
year for his televised response to the tragic
Parliament Hill shootings in October
- Portugal
(September/October): likely win for the Socialist Party, currently posting
wide leads over the ruling liberal-conservative government (confusingly
named the "Social Democratic Party", which initially threw LabourList's 2014 Political World Cup Guide slightly
over the summer)
- Spain
(late December): possible victory for left-wing insurgents Podemos
- US: start of the Democratic & Republican primary campaigns (no actual voting until 2016, however). Hillary Clinton is the one to beat on the Democratic side. 2012 nominee Mitt Romney is currently a weak GOP frontrunner, but Jeb Bush, arch-libertarian Rand Paul, 2012 VP nominee Paul Ryan, black conservative activist Ben Carson and others also drawing substantial support and the race should be considered wide-open
Comments
Post a Comment