There’s a week
to go until the EU referendum. I suspect like everyone by now, I can’t wait for
it to be over, so roll on next Thursday.
Moreover, like
many Remainers, my nerves are also in overdrive as I watch the polls and hear
discomforting anecdotes. But I knew this would never be easy. In 2013 when I blogged in support of a referendum, I wrote that “it will be a very difficult fight, but on balance, I’d
ever so slightly rather be the ‘in’ campaign than the ‘outs’ when it comes down
to it” - I still stand by that.
Better
Together went through a late wobble much like the one Stronger In is
experiencing now, but achieved a hard-fought win in the end (though we must learn the lessons about the aftermath this time). The pollsters are heavily caveating some of the Leave leads. While I accept that a pragmatic late break for
the continuity option may not be an immutable law, history is on our side, as Peter Kellner has noted. Expected high turnout is a good signal for Remain. The economic warnings have been
consistently stated and are being borne out by the markets, and in an age of
all-round scepticism of politicians, some polling suggests expert voices like Mark Carney may carry the most weight, as Stronger In has often seemed to calculate. And lastly, a narrative of Brexit becoming a real possibility also
helps Remain – it gives young or complacent would-be Remainers a kick up the
arse to get the polls and obligates undecideds to take full account of the
gravity of the decision, rather than casting a risk-free protest vote as they might
do if Remain felt favoured. Leave are peaking too soon.
There’s all to
play for, so if you’re nervous get out there and keep/start campaigning (look
up local events for Labour In here, or Stronger In here). But when all is said and done, here is what I think Labour Remainers
need to do.
1.
Regardless of the result – unite and fight
First of all, renewed
Labour unity against the Tories is both necessary and possible in either
outcome.
As I said in February, I’d like to see Labour In and Labour Leave figures come together on
June 24th to congratulate each other on a principled campaign and go
forward together. Working-class Leaver MPs like John Mann should be elevated to
more visible positions, ideally including the shadow cabinet if a
post-referendum reshuffle goes ahead. As James Hallwood wrote this week, diversity is strength and the party’s few prominent Eurosceptic voices
should be seen as ambassadors both to and for the many, many underrepresented Leavers (and grudging Remainers) in our core vote.
Unity will
also stand us in a nice contrast to the anarchy that will grip the Tory party pretty
much regardless of the outcome (light-hearted suggestion: invite the press to
join Alan Johnson and Gisela Stuart as they eat popcorn and watch the
blue-on-blue outbreaks roll in on BBC News 24, if it doesn’t belabour the point
too much). After failing to exploit Osborne and IDS’ impromptu production of
Omnishambles Budget 2: Electric Boogaloo back in March, this could also give
Jeremy Corbyn a second (and likely final) chance to prove he can move in and making himself look like a credible, stabilising
alternative PM. Then or never – there won’t be a better opportunity.
And as Stephen Bush noted, it’s also true that this referendum has almost made David
Cameron and immediate allies seem like temporary inhabitants of the British
left at times. This has generated plenty of quotes Labour can use to advantage
once normal service resumes. John Major attacked Boris Johnson for backing NHS charges and said the NHS “is about as safe with [him and Michael Gove] as a pet
hamster would be with a hungry python”. When Sadiq Khan agreed to join with
David Cameron in the national interest, he had to call Sadiq a “proud Muslim”
mere weeks after smearing him as a friend of extremists. Osborne has admitted
raising income tax can increase receipts, contrary to his usual assertions.
They’ve cited facts about migrants they might sometimes shy from – there must be other small examples such
as this across a range of policy areas. And the biggest came on Sunday, when
Cameron came as close he ever will to admitting that the Tory narrative about the
2008 crash has been dishonest (“the 2008 recession was the worst since the war,
and if we vote [Leave], this will be the first recession that was
self-inflicted”, he said). Labour use these against the Tories to reinforce our messages.
2.
If it’s Remain
If it’s a win,
I look forward to being able to breathe a sigh of relief and have a celebratory
drink or five. But a reminder – it can’t stop there.
The point
about Labour Leavers being put up front will be vital here. A large
minority of our vote – especially working-class Labour voters – will have
broken with the party and potentially feel betrayed. We don’t want UKIP to
become in England what the SNP are now in Scotland.
We will also
need to take a leaf out of Sadiq’s book. When he won, commentators noted how swiftly
he moved to prevent Corbynites from “colonising his victory”, instead making clear what he felt his own mandate did
and didn’t mean for Labour. Similarly, one voter told me he was voting
Leave because he thought Brussels would claim a UK Remain vote as a mandate for
the status quo (or even further integration). He’ll be far from alone and the
thought of that aggravates me as much as anyone. A few weeks back I finished a
Friday evening Labour In canvassing session, only to see a story about some
asinine remarks Jean-Claude Juncker had just made (it brought to mind a fridge
magnet my parents had that said “cleaning a house when kids are growing is like
shovelling snow when it’s still snowing” - cue angry Tweeting from me). Martin Shulz, Donald Tusk and others have made similarly unhelpful
comments. If we win, it will be a close-fought and self-made victory for
Britain’s own economic, social and national interest, and one achieved firmly
in spite of them and the EU’s dysfunction. Shy of half the country will still have
voted Leave and will need to hear that reassurance, but those voting or
campaigning for Remain will owe it to ourselves as well.
Instead, our
leaders will need to share their battle scars with colleagues on the continent
and let them know just how bloody hard this referendum was. How for all the
EU’s benefits on paper, it was still incredibly difficult to defend in its
current state to a fair-minded but frustrated electorate. How this referendum
has exposed deep divisions in our society and most established political
parties, ones that plenty of other EU national leaders will be acutely aware
exist in their
own countries too. A warning shot and a cautionary tale, not an excuse for
complacency.
We’ll then
have to parlay that into real reform. I’m open-minded on how best to address
immigration, but if Ed Balls et al do
want to push for a rethink on free movement, right after a razor-thin Remain
vote (not 10 days before) might be the best moment to try. Alternatively, a ‘migration dividend’ for areas where public services are most
strained and language training to promote integration are needed at home, and we
could lobby for EU funding for the purpose. Get going on that ‘red card’ veto and those growth-focused reforms. Press for Gordon Brown’s ‘leading not leaving’ pledges for 500,000 new jobs, worker protections and action on tax avoidance (and
pressure the Tories at home to sign up, then make them stymying our vision of
EU reform a 2020 general election issue if/when they don’t). Find a way to
involve the public in the selection of our EU commissioner.
A blog by Douglas Dowell highlighted numerous ways we could strengthen accountability and UK
influence, some of which could be done under our own volition (term limits for
our MEPs and an EU committee in Westminster to set mandates for UK
representatives like the Danes and Finns have domestically, he suggests), while
others will require long-term coalition building in Brussels of the kind
Cameron opted against until his slapdash renegotiation. Jonathan Lindsell wrote up some ideas to ease national reconciliation around immigration,
TTIP, tax dodging and the need for Britain to creatively defy the spirit - or
even letter - of EU law more often (as Germany and others do). He also notes
that with the EU democratically affirmed as part of our governance
arrangements, real scrutiny from the media and concerned citizens will need to
be brought to bear on how we are represented day-to-day in Brussels (unlikely
Europhile Jeremy Clarkson rightly observed the striking difference with how we cover Westminster,
where “an MP cannot even put a cup of coffee on expenses without being torn to
pieces”).
Lastly, all
parties should spend the next three years laying the groundwork for the 2019
European elections to be a real competition over effective representation,
rather than the usual proxy vote for general frustrations. Labour has ground to
make up here – we can’t exactly blame people for not voting on European issues
when in the 2014 Euros, not one of our Party Election Broadcasts even mentioned
the word “Europe”. Brown’s ‘leading not leaving’ prospectus and the impetus for
reform could provide a theme to campaign on this time. We can take the Tories
to task for spurning allies in order to appease their internal divisions,
rather than fighting every inch for UK influence. And it is vital to our
national interest that UKIP be sternly challenged this time. If a company’s
employees didn’t feel it should exist and only clocked
in to get their payslips, you wouldn’t expect it to operate very
efficiently – such is the daily contradiction of UKIP now providing the largest
contingent of Britain’s MEPs. They don’t want the EU to work, whereas a public
who voted Remain by definition will – that case could be easier to make than
before, if we’re willing to try.
The Scots were promised that “no” didn’t mean “no change” in their referendum, but many there
feel the political class betrayed them. If it’s Remain, for real this time, it
can’t mean “remain the same”. There’ll be no point in securing victory only to
waste it.
3.
If it’s Leave
Okay I’m going
to cop out a bit here. The most immediate concern would be restraint and respect – accepting the
public’s will and making the best of a bad situation, not scorning half our own country or
retreating into the denialism and false consciousness tropes that all too humanly grabbed many Labourites in 2015. But I’m not going to do this today. Cross that
bridge if we happen to come to it, but this bank of the river is better for all and we can stay here. Get out there and campaign!
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