Dispatches from #PhOwenbanking: Owen Smith’s path to victory

This is the first blog I’ve gotten round to writing since that fateful weekend of Brexit. Among the many shockwaves of that in the past two months (though it seems so much longer somehow) has been the worsening of the crisis in Labour and the onset of our current leadership race. Ballots start dropping by post and email on Monday August 22^nd and we have a month to vote.

For my part, I am 100% behind Owen Smith. I’ve seen him speak twice now, and he is a great communicator full of firebrand passion (read this anecdote on how fast he can change minds). He has the life experience people crave from politicians – only an MP since 2010, a son of the Welsh valleys with politics forged in the miners’ strike, and a career that has included negotiating peace in Northern Ireland, work as a BBC radio producer and time in the private sector. He has been a fierce fighter for Labour in parliament, spearheading opposition to the Tory NHS privatisation bill as part of Ed Miliband’s health team and skilfully defeating the Tories’ brutal tax credit and disability benefit cuts in the DWP brief under Jeremy Corbyn.

He has unveiled a progressive agenda premised on £200bn of badly-needed investment in our communities and public services, putting battling inequality at the heart of Labour’s mission, building 300,000 homes a year to tackle our housing crisis and once again rooting Labour’s internationalism in an ethical foreign policy. He hails from Labour’s principled but practical soft-left tradition, the politics of both his hero Nye Bevan and of Harold Wilson (another Bevan fan with a generic surname, who used his commanding grasp of the centres of party and country alike to win elections and move Britain forward). He has been able to bring former 2015 Corbyn voters and advisors into his fold, offering us hope of unity again. And though some have pointed to inevitable missteps and I don’t agree with him on everything, I am forever mindful that this is true of every candidate I will ever back for anything – it’s part of democracy.

But above all, it’s about this. As Owen has said, Labour is the greatest force for good this country has ever known. And yet it is in peril, hurtling towards a devastating snap election and with its very purpose and existence in question, all at a time when so many people desperately need a strong Labour Party to fight for them. Owen has stepped up to shoulder the burden of rescuing it, an enormous and sacred responsibility it has simply been awe-inspiring to watch him take on with such vigour – someone had to. So I am happy to stand with him as he does it, and I would urge you to as well.

For weeks now phonebanks - or #PhOwenbanks as they’re known - have been underway all across the country. You can also help from home if you’re on the go or not near a major centre, using the innovative app Owen’s campaign team have created. I’ve found it a very invigorating experience, for a number of reasons. I know this can be an election cliché, but it’s really only once I got stuck in that I realised this race is much closer than it might seem from a lot of the snapshot reporting from debates and nomination meetings. I’m starting to feel like some in the Corbyn camp should be wary of an old law of politics – hubris kills you, especially among idealistic lefties who don’t like being told what to do by a haughty frontrunner (Corbyn’s "how do you know?" outburst when heartbroken Remainer members challenged his EU campaigning this week just reeked of that to me). Much has been made of the CLP nomination figures, but only a fraction of members turn up and when I was asking Owen supporters specifically if they would consider attending their local ones, several told me they were staying away because they feared the atmosphere or felt it would make no difference (though in actual votes cast in all types of nominations, including affiliates, the candidates are ultimately neck and neck anyway).

‘Head v heart’ 2015 Corbyn voters

Most significant though is how much lost or soft support I’ve found out there is from Corbyn compared to 2015. This includes not only the longstanding Labour members who took a chance on him last time, but even seems to include many who joined specifically for him last year but are now wavering. It’s easy to underappreciate this because of all the sound and fury from his loudest backers, especially in the divisive echo chamber of social media. But there are many who are quietly wrestling with their doubts and happy to hear from you if you listen – we can only reach them through phonebanking. And for our part as moderates, we must reconsider the ease with which we throw around the idea of a Corbyn ‘cult’ – yes the staunchest voices display the traits, but these voters do not and I can understand why they would feel offended by a generalisation.

When I’ve asked their thoughts on the race, many of these tell a similar tale. Voted for Jeremy in 2015 because he represented something new and they intensely admired his principles. They feel he has been given a raw deal by a blob-like PLP (key is to try to differentiate the minority in the PLP who criticised in public from day one from the great many who tried to make it work, including Owen) and the media (all Labour leaders get this, and what’s key is to the skill to tackle it – Owen worked for the BBC as a radio producer so he’ll know how to handle them).

However there is also nuance there for these voters – while the hardcore Corbynistas seem to conclude that we’d be on easy street if it weren’t for PLP and media interference, the soft ones and undecideds recognise other aspects of the picture too. Unprompted, one brought up Corbyn failing to make hay of the IDS resignation. Others bring up Europe (one was leaning Owen after voting for Corbyn in 2015, over the EU campaign and the general appearance that Corbyn just “does his own thing”). And many just get that he may not be a leader or do genuinely fear for a split or an election defeat, but still feel an emotional loyalty to Corbyn too - several described their indecision as “head versus heart”.

Owen represents the “head” option, but they are reticent – one described it as like having to make a “leap of faith”, others saw it as a “tactical” departure from their ideal. Writers like Stephen Bush and Helen Lewis have noted this – a widespread suspicion that abandoning Corbyn means going back to the days of immigration mugs and half-hearted opposition to austerity. Corbyn is the status quo, and for all their doubts, they need reassurance and to have their mind put at ease, so that they can safely come across.

Key is to try and break down what I agree with Owen is a false dichotomy – principle and power cannot and should not be divisible (and personally I also find the assumption that Corbyn has the monopoly on principle problematic, but it is important to respect their high regard for him). Also vital is to stress their similarity on policy and that for all the infighting, the two candidates are actually at one on the issues that matter. Some seem to acknowledge this, either before or after you talk them through the policies, but some say it makes it harder to choose or they don’t see the point of the contest. 

This is of course when you press competence, party unity and electability to deliver on those principles as the key difference. They may ask for proof – this is the tricky part as it is very 'eye of the beholder'. It’s one thing for them to be aware that Corbyn is weak, but unlike with an ‘Anybody But Corbyn’ moderate voter, this isn’t enough here – they need convincing that Smith himself would actually be an upgrade. Polls showing the public easily prefer Smith to Corbyn as leader are worth citing, along with anecdotes from voices in the PLP and ex-Corbyn voices like Neale Coleman. But I’m wary that this alone can sound a bit procedural and passion carries a premium with Corbynites, so I think it’s worth conveying your own dedication for Owen rather than just citing sources (“I’ve seen him up close and I wouldn’t be giving up my time to campaign for him if I didn’t think he was absolutely the right person to lead us” I’ve been saying a lot, not least because it’s true).

Some are concerned about Owen’s backstory and positions, which hardcore Corbynites have been very successful at seizing on or distorting via social media – these I feel are important to address and debunk. One theme is Owen having worked for Pfizer. Here it’s worth arguing that drug companies create life-saving drugs and jobs in the UK and that working for a private company also gives you life experience with the real economy and its current problems. But you can also inform them that Owen commissioned research opposing NHS privatisation and he opposed Pfizer’s takeover bid of AstraZeneca in the UK as a Labour MP. And lastly, it is our NHS that ensures free access to prescription drugs for people in the UK, but that that system is at risk of wholesale Tory privatisation of the kind Owen fought as a shadow Health minister if we lose another election under Corbyn.

Welfare is another lightening rod, as it was in 2015 – here Owen argued for a strong stance against the Welfare Bill as a member of Harriet Harman’s cabinet, and was trusted enough by Corbyn to hold the DWP brief and defeat IDS over disability benefit and tax credits. A few might also raise Trident. On the policy side of it, Owen wants to get rid of nuclear weapons, but like Bevan he concluded that it is best done multilaterally, and our union allies fear for jobs in Barrow and Scotland. But perhaps more fruitful than expecting them to change their thinking on Trident itself, it may be enough just to remind them that many left-wing Smith supporters openly disagree with him here (Louise Haigh, Lisa Nandy et al), but just think Trident is a lower priority issue than getting a competent leader who can help people with the day-to-day issues they face.

Even if they essentially accept that Owen himself is left-wing, some seem to fear it will still somehow enable the right-wing of the party again if he wins. Here it’s worth reminding them how hard it is to remove a sitting leader (as we’ve seen!) and that the party as a whole that will have elected him has moved to the left, with the Blairite right in particular now marginalised and in disarray. Corbyn originally only ran to shift the party’s debate and never expected to win, and has brought in hundreds of thousands of new members loyal to his basic vision - one 2015 JC voter I phonebanked with pointed out to me that from this angle, Corbyn has actually achieved his original mission. Moreover, by staying in post rather than passing on the torch to a more credible anti-austerity candidate, Corbyn is now putting those gains he has made at active risk – this makes Owen the safer option to safeguard that very legacy.

One I spoke to yesterday started off as completely undecided, but by the end was saying he will probably go Owen if nothing changes – reaching them and assuaging fears does make a difference. Some of the most conflicted still won’t give you much indication of if they’ve flipped by the end of the call, but you’ll have fed into their thinking and the important thing is that so many are happy to talk to you – they won’t take the time to listen if they don’t genuinely want a perspective.

Potential abstainers

One other discovery - there also those out there who have foreclosed any possibility they will vote for Corbyn, but are considering not voting at all. While I stress they are fewer in number than the main pool of Corbyn/Smith undecideds, I’m noting it because to be honest I hadn’t thought about it before I encountered it, but it makes some sense when you speak to them.

With some, it’s just experiencing the inevitable trade off at the margin from there being one ‘unity candidate’ against Corbyn – in a democracy no one likes the feeling that their vote might get taken for granted. Women in particular are rightly troubled by the party still not having a female leader in the frame – I share this frustration too, but Owen is backed strongly by Angela Eagle, has warned against the tide of misogyny in the party under Corbyn and will have a cabinet that is 50:50, including the four great offices this time. Others wish a particular candidate had run – just tell them why you are all in for Owen, and gently remind them that the problem with that kind of leadership speculation is that the grass always seems greener – it’s easy to compare a Rorschach test to watching an actual candidate who did step up performing under the spotlight.

Others are just so demoralised about the state of the party that they struggle to see any candidate changing anything and mentally have one foot out the door. For this, I say again what I said above – for over a century Labour has been a tremendous force for social good, and it cannot be allowed to die with us, leaving an unchecked one-party Tory state in its wake. If you are still a member, you are as much a part of the party as anyone else and should exercise your right to have a say, not let someone else decide its future (your future) for you. Some are pessimistic about the next election no matter the leader, but the thing is that even if Owen isn’t another Harold Wilson as I hope, at the barest minimum there’s untold value in having another Neil Kinnock – the one who rehabilitates the party and lets it fight another day. Theresa May is also yet to face any scrutiny, because Labour has lacked a leader capable of providing it – this Tory Party only won a tiny majority in 2015 by default, their support is soft and we can bring intense pressure to bear as the post-Brexit economy they have caused slides further. Put simply, if they feel like things are on the wrong track, even if they’re not yet as set on Owen as me, they have every reason to grab hold of change and hope for something better.

We can win, but only if we want to

We might be the underdog, but there is a path to victory for Owen – I’ve experienced it. Sadiq Khan’s timely endorsement – he of the 1.3 million mandate - will change minds too, just as the ballots start coming through from Monday. But there's a month to go after that, and we do have to want this as badly as Team Corbyn do and fight it every last inch. So here’s the link for where you can find out more about Owen events – get PhOwenbanking, if you’re not already!